The BSA market analysis suggests that the Herms District’s long-term Cub Scout growth goal should be to “double” the size of the current Cub Scout program by creating new units.
The gap is 371 boys which is greater than the current size of district’s Cub Scout membership. The Herms District December 31st, 2012, Cub Scout membership was 336. Thus the Cub Scout market analysis based Cub Scout membership target is 707 boys (336 + 371) or 110% growth. The JTE gold-level growth goal is 3.5% (of 336) or 12 boys.
The above table shows 5 of 9 district census areas in the council have met their market expected membership goal. The Cub Scout TAY number includes boys age six through 10. Density is number of members divided by the TAY. The gap is the difference in the number of members and expected members. The “expected” number is an estimate of the number of boys likely to be interested in participating in the Cub Scout program based the socio-economic profile of each census zip-code tract in the district.
The end of 2012 “Cub Scout” (CS) members number (768) from the BSA 2013 Council Market Analysis Report (MAR) is significantly different than the number of youth members (336) in registered in traditional packs in the Herms District. The MAR count includes members with home addresses located in the census zip-code tract. This number probably includes youth in non-traditional packs (e.g. After School “packs”) and youth who live in the Herms District tabulation areas but are registered in Packs that are not assigned to the Herms District.